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13

Heart Spin

6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 13 · OR 93

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#15

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Ellis Park 21/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 123 · below its mark21/07/2025 · OR 90 par21/07C5OR 90C5 @ Kentucky Downs 04/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m2f110y 122 · below its mark04/09/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Keeneland 10/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 94 · 1m1f110y Gd 122 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 94 par10/10C5OR 94C5 @ Churchill Downs 23/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 94 parC5 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 102 · 1m1f Fm 118 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 102 par12/04C5OR 102C8 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 125 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 92 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 21/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 91 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 91 par21/06C8OR 91C5 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 1m1f Yie 123 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 17/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 89 par17/09C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Churchill Downs?2nd5th−3
2026-07-19Ellis Park?5th5th0
2026-06-21Churchill Downs?4th7th−3
2026-04-29Churchill Downs?4th7th−3
2026-04-12Keeneland?8th8th0
2025-11-23Churchill Downs?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0723/1121/0617/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength56%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20254th10/147%40%-0.07
04/09/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
10/10/20254th40/10%70%+0.70
23/11/20254th33/10%73%+0.73
12/04/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
29/04/20264th15/261%73%+0.12
21/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
19/07/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
17/09/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06