10
Moon Law
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 90
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1543% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +9.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/03/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/12/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 36% | -0.46 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/5 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |