1
Mother Green
3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 84
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 14-15 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 21/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 09/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 01/06/2026 | 7th | 5/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |