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14

Surprenant Cocca

5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 14 · OR 89

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 10/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 124 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 93 par10/10C8OR 93C8 @ Churchill Downs 16/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Turfway Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 104 · 1m 121 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 104 par28/12C8OR 104C8 @ Turfway Park 16/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 99 · 1m 121 · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 99 parC8 @ Turfway Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m 125 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 89 par5/03C8OR 89C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 95 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 1m110y Slo 122 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 94 par25/05C5OR 94C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 89 · 1m110y 122 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m 122 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 90 par10/09C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-08-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-05-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-03-05Turfway Park?3rd6th−3
2026-01-16Turfway Park?3rd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1016/0125/0510/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
16/11/20255th13/891%50%-0.41
28/12/20255th9/488%43%-0.45
16/01/20263rd4/596%50%-0.46
05/03/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
02/05/20266th12/137%50%+0.13
25/05/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14
11/08/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
10/09/20264th9/153%57%+0.05