12
Birkin Girl
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 12 · OR 97
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 90% | -0.05 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |