Cavatelli
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 24/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |