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5

Dancewithmefiona

3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 5 · OR 76

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 4f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS12/08C6C6 @ Fairmount Park 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 53 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 53 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 61 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 61 par27/09C6OR 61C6 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 49 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 49 · 6f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 49 par12/11C6OR 49C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 45 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 45 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 60 par9/06C6OR 60C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 67 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 77 · 6f 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 77 par29/08C6OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Fairmount Park?4th2nd+2
2026-07-21Fairmount Park?4th2nd+2
2026-06-09Fairmount Park?1st-1th+2
2026-04-25Fairmount Park?4th2nd+2
2025-11-12Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th6th+2
2025-10-18Fairmount Park?3rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0818/109/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength12%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/08/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
06/09/20252nd9/276%75%-0.01
27/09/20259th10/147%0%-0.47
18/10/20253rd13/266%71%+0.06
12/11/20258th33/10%36%+0.36
25/04/20264th40/10%25%+0.25
09/06/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
21/07/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
29/08/20264th12/137%25%-0.12