11
Oak Alley
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 56% | -0.40 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |