6
Tiz Wine Time
3yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 6 · OR 77
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength86%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -11.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 21/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |