Bofa Beach
3yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 2 · OR 70
Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 8.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA73 | 10th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 9th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | ? | 27th | 27th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 27/09/2025 | 27th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.19 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |