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10

Chelio

3yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 10 · OR 59

Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 1m

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chased home a subsequent winner in a 7f handicap at Goodwood in June. Ran well returned to all-weather after 10 weeks off when third at Lingfield in August and shaped as though still in form held up in a steadily-run race when occupying same spot at Bath. One to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 22/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f Sta 12922/1054 @ Lingfield 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 17/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12917/1255 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 64 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 63 · 6f12y Goo 133 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 63 par18/056OR 635 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 61 · 7f1y Std 132 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 61 par13/086OR 615 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 60 · 1m GS 127 · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 60 par13/095OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath53rd3rd0
2026-08-13Lingfield63rd4th−1
2026-06-05Goodwood52nd2nd0
2026-05-18Windsor68th9th−1
2026-04-25Leicester56th6th0
2025-12-17Lingfield52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1025/0413/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20258th100/10%22%+0.22
20/11/20253rd125/10%78%+0.78
17/12/20252nd4/179%86%+0.07
25/04/20266th5/174%55%-0.19
18/05/20268th9/276%36%-0.40
05/06/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
13/08/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
13/09/20263rd7/163%78%+0.15