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4

Unionville

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4 · OR 69

Kempton · Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★ Timeform

Commentary

Found some improvement to score from 9 lb lower than in the spring in 6-runner event at this course (7f) last month, getting away with a wide trip thanks to the slack pace and showing the best turn of speed. Upped to 1m but surprisingly failed to travel with same zest when third here 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 19/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 71 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 71 par19/015OR 715 @ Chelmsford City 12/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 76 · 6f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 76 par8/044OR 765 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f12y Goo 134 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Kempton 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 72 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 72 par2/075OR 725 @ Sandown 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 67 · 7f Sta 132 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 67 par19/085OR 675 @ Kempton 02/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 67 · 7f Sta 138 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 69 par14/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton53rd3rd0
2026-09-02Kempton51st1st0
2026-08-19Kempton54th4th0
2026-07-24Sandown53rd3rd0
2026-07-02Kempton58th8th0
2026-06-08Windsor58th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/018/0619/0814/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/01/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
12/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
08/04/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
08/06/20268th22/10%22%+0.22
02/07/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
24/07/20263rd28/10%60%+0.60
19/08/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
02/09/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
14/09/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07