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7

Allaire

3yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 6 · OR 80

Kempton · Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 219y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Half-sister to St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov. Only beaten by useful types at Lingfield/Newbury before being found out in listed company at the latter track in May. Failed to land the odds back in a maiden at Leicester 2 weeks ago but this trip will surely suit and she receives weight all round.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12815/1253 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 12817/0431 @ Newbury 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS16/0513 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m2f Goo 128 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 82 par21/093OR 82projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Leicester33rd3rd0
2026-05-16Newbury16th3rd+2
2026-04-17Newbury32nd2nd0
2025-12-15Lingfield52nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1217/0416/0521/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -18.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
17/04/20262nd7/491%92%+0.02
16/05/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
21/09/20263rd4/797%67%-0.30