8
From The Hip
3yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 76
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-30 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 14/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |