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Moving Force

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 6 · OR 81

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

24%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent without winning since reappearance after missing whole of last season. Finished second at C&D in May and has since returned to form on all-weather, including third of 12 at Southwell (10/1) 32 days ago, backing up previous effort. Returns to C&D and holds leading chance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Chantilly 14/07/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 91 · 5f212y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2024 · OR 91 par14/07C?OR 912 @ York 21/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 91 · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2024 · OR 91 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2024 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 91 · 6f111y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2024 · OR 91 par12/092OR 913 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 89 par4 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Sta 134 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 84 par20/054OR 844 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 6f GS 135 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f20y Std 140 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 84 par14/074OR 844 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 6f17y Std 137 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 82 par3/094OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell43rd3rd0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton42nd2nd0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton47th7th0
2026-06-11Newbury48th8th0
2026-05-20Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-05-01Goodwood39th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/071/0514/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20246th25/10%17%+0.17
21/08/20245th9/153%75%+0.22
12/09/202414th25/10%32%+0.32
01/05/20269th40/10%0%0.00
20/05/20262nd50/10%89%+0.89
11/06/20268th18/15%0%-0.05
14/07/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
31/07/20262nd33/10%89%+0.89
03/09/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34