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Rock Iguana

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 2 · OR 79

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has struggled since second at Southwell in April, eighth of 13 in a handicap over 7f at Kempton (80/1) 12 days ago, wasn't given a hard time on first outing since leaving Denis Hogan. Back down in trip and still has something to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 13317/0855 @ Kempton 15/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f Sta 1374 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 136 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 84 par2/104OR 844 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 83 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Southwell 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 81 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 81 par25/044OR 814 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 81 · 7f Sta 131 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 81 parC7 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 139 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 80 par7/08C7OR 80BHA79 @ Curragh 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Goo 120 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 80 · 7f Sta 134 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 80 par23/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton48th8th0
2026-08-22CurraghBHA798th13th−4
2026-08-07Gowran Park?6th9th−3
2026-05-20Kempton46th6th0
2026-04-25Southwell42nd2nd0
2025-11-24Wolverhampton46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0824/117/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
15/09/20252nd6/492%88%-0.05
02/10/202511th14/126%9%-0.17
24/11/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
25/04/20262nd15/261%88%+0.27
20/05/20266th10/382%50%-0.32
07/08/20266th22/10%55%+0.55
22/08/20268th66/10%22%+0.22
23/09/20268th80/10%42%+0.42