2
Sparksmith
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 4 · OR 81
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 65/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 08/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 04/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 03/04/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 15% | -0.21 |