6
Buccabay
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 3 · OR 76
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newmarket | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 57/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 19/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |