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2

French Affair

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · Draw 7 · OR 81

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Came good for new yard in 26-runner handicap at Glorious Goodwood and improved further to follow up at Redcar 10 days later (both 6f, good to firm). Shaped well back in a big field when fifth of 24 in Bronze Cup at Ayr (6f, soft) last month and now first-time headgear is reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 77 par5/044OR 774 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par23/054OR 754 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 126 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 76 · 7f6y GF 131 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 76 par20/064OR 764 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 26 · OR 75 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 5f217y Goo 139 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par8/085OR 794 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 7f3y GS 138 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 82 · 6f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 82 par18/092OR 82projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr25th3rd+2
2026-08-31Epsom Downs43rd3rd0
2026-08-08Redcar51st2nd−1
2026-07-29Goodwood41st1st0
2026-06-20Doncaster46th6th0
2026-06-05Doncaster44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/045/068/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
09/05/20264th9/276%57%-0.19
23/05/20262nd25/10%95%+0.95
05/06/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
20/06/20266th5/287%58%-0.29
29/07/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/08/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
31/08/20263rd6/594%60%-0.34
18/09/20265th16/116%83%+0.67