10
Merrimack
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Brighton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 8-10 · tight 81/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |