Mesaafi
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 5 · OR 78
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-06-22 | Windsor | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 10th | 85/40 | 89% | 18% | -0.71 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 81% | +0.44 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 27/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |