5
Tyger Bay
9yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 8 · OR 77
Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Yarmouth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 25/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |