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12

Ajrad

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 49

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thirteen runs since last win in 2025. Ran well when making the frame at Chepstow in August, but has followed that with 2 lesser efforts. Hold-up performer who hasn't been the easiest to predict and may need a few to falter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m GS 132 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 60 par17/046OR 606 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 59 · 7f Sta 129 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 57 · 7f16y Goo 127 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 57 par29/056OR 576 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m14y Gd 135 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 7f16y GF 134 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 54 par16/076OR 546 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m14y GF 123 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 53 par18/086OR 536 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 52 · 7f16y Goo 132 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 51 · 1m Sft 131 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 51 par21/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Ffos Las66th6th0
2026-08-31Chepstow64th4th0
2026-08-18Chepstow64th4th0
2026-08-09Chepstow65th5th0
2026-07-16Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Chepstow65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0415/0618/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength33%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
06/05/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
29/05/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
15/06/20265th5/174%56%-0.18
16/07/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11
09/08/20265th5/174%64%-0.10
18/08/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
31/08/20264th3/184%70%-0.14
21/09/20266th14/126%29%+0.02