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13

Ashford Hill

5yo Mare · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 45

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Lingfield handicap in January and back to form over that C&D when third in August. Not in same form both starts since, though with an excuse last time. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 45 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 45 par24/016OR 456 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 49 · 7f1y Std 129 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 49 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 49 par4/036OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 48 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 47 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 47 par1/066OR 475 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f1y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 46 · 7f1y Std 126 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 46 par11/086OR 466 @ Chepstow 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 46 · 7f16y Goo 126 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 46 · 7f36y Std 127 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 46 par18/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-08-31Chepstow67th7th0
2026-08-11Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-04Lingfield59th8th+1
2026-06-01Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-04-21Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0121/0411/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
10/02/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
04/03/20268th15/261%30%-0.31
21/04/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
01/06/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
04/08/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
11/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
31/08/20267th15/261%40%-0.21
18/09/20266th25/10%44%+0.44