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4yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 5 · OR 58

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a losing run stretching back to his debut at Southwell (7f) in March. Has dropped below last winning mark after a couple of below-par efforts last month and the cheekpieces now go back on. Market best guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 62 par28/025OR 625 @ Southwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 64 par27/035OR 646 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f50y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 63 par5/056OR 635 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 63 · 6f17y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 62 · 6f6y Sft 132 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 62 par2/096OR 626 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f Goo 137 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 61 · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 61 par14/095OR 61projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk511th10th+1
2026-09-09Redcar69th9th0
2026-09-02Hamilton65th5th0
2026-08-06Southwell55th4th+1
2026-05-05Ayr64th4th0
2026-04-07Southwell66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/027/042/0914/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
14/03/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
27/03/20267th7/163%40%-0.23
07/04/20266th4/179%44%-0.35
05/05/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
06/08/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
02/09/20265th22/10%67%+0.67
09/09/20269th17/255%43%-0.12
14/09/202611th22/10%9%+0.09