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2

Pickering Castle

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 9 · OR 59

Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of a reduced mark when winning at Yarmouth in August, though the form of that race hasn't worked out. Wasn't in the same form there last time, carrying head bit awkwardly. Bounce back required returned to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chepstow 02/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 72 · 6f16y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 72 par2/095OR 725 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 71 · 6f1y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 70 · 6f20y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/11/2025 · OR 70 par4/115OR 705 @ Lingfield 25/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 67 par6 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 64 par13/016OR 646 @ Chelmsford City 08/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 61 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f2y Std 129 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 59 par13/076OR 596 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 56 · 7f3y GS 131 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 59 · 7f3y Gd 134 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 59 par17/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Yarmouth66th6th0
2026-08-30Yarmouth61st1st0
2026-07-13Lingfield66th6th0
2026-02-08Chelmsford City67th7th0
2026-01-13Southwell67th7th0
2025-11-25Lingfield58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0925/1113/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 56/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20254th3/184%25%-0.59
14/10/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
04/11/20258th14/126%0%-0.26
25/11/20258th33/10%30%+0.30
13/01/20267th16/116%25%+0.09
08/02/20267th4/179%14%-0.65
13/07/20266th14/126%44%+0.18
30/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
17/09/20266th10/382%58%-0.24