11
Twitch
9yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 53
Kempton · Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 8% | -0.68 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |