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Creciente

3yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 7 · OR 54

Kempton · Racing TV Handicap · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of a classified event over 7f on the turf at Lingfield in July and then beaten a nose second at that C&D back in handicap company next time. Wasn't seen to best effect on all-weather there last time but place claims if bouncing back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 60 par13/046OR 606 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 26/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 135 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 55 par26/056OR 555 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 53 · 6f213y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 50 · 7f16y GF 120 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 50 par27/066OR 506 @ Lingfield 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 48 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 7f Goo 130 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 55 par1/086OR 556 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m31y GF 130 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 55 par12/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-10Windsor63rd3rd0
2026-08-01Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-07-22Lingfield61st1st0
2026-06-27Chepstow66th6th0
2026-06-14Salisbury54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0414/061/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/04/20268th28/10%56%+0.56
14/05/20265th14/126%71%+0.45
26/05/202613th12/137%0%-0.37
14/06/20264th15/261%25%-0.36
27/06/20266th11/271%17%-0.54
22/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
01/08/20262nd5/287%83%-0.04
10/08/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
12/09/20268th10/147%13%-0.35