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5

Ridger

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 10 · OR 47

Kempton · Racing TV Handicap · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform
6lbs

Commentary

Made an encouraging start in handicaps when a close third at Leicester and built on that with a 3¼ lengths success from Saisons D'or in 11-runner race (8/11) at Wolverhampton (7f) 7 days ago. A 6-lb penalty may not be enough to stop him from following up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 5f215y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0644 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS17/0744 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0746 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 50 par13/086OR 506 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 46 · 6f Gd 132 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 46 par27/086OR 466 @ Leicester 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 46 · 7f Goo 121 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 46 par21/096OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 46 · 7f36y Std 123 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 46 par28/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-21Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-08-27Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-08-13Lingfield67th7th0
2026-07-23Southwell49th7th+2
2026-07-17Wolverhampton49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0613/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20266th12/137%0%-0.37
17/07/20269th33/10%0%0.00
23/07/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
13/08/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
27/08/20262nd5/287%80%-0.07
21/09/20263rd3/184%85%+0.00
28/09/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04