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6

Chesneys Charm

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 1 · OR 64

Kempton · Bet 20 Pound Get 20 Pound With Unibet Handicap · 1m 3f 219y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quickly back to form when ¾-length third of 11 to The Anthony Gover in handicap (6/1) at Wolverhampton (9.5f) 14 days ago, doing well after having to make his effort widest. Goes up in trip and is expected to be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 25/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m13y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 75 par25/085OR 755 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 74 · 6f195y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 74 par5 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 73 par21/035OR 734 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 70 par26/045OR 704 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 68 · 7f219y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 1m2f1y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 66 par22/085OR 665 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f1y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 64 · 1m1f104y Std 141 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 64 par21/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-09-09Redcar57th6th+1
2026-08-22Redcar53rd2nd+1
2026-08-08Redcar47th5th+2
2026-04-26Wetherby511th10th+1
2026-04-16Ripon46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0816/0422/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 57/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20254th13/266%70%+0.04
09/09/20258th8/158%30%-0.28
21/03/20267th16/116%45%+0.30
16/04/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
26/04/202611th16/116%9%-0.07
08/08/20267th66/10%54%+0.54
22/08/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
09/09/20267th2/189%25%-0.64
21/09/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12