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5

Currumbin

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 7 · OR 64

Kempton · Bet 20 Pound Get 20 Pound With Unibet Handicap · 1m 3f 219y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Endured a low-key start to the season and eased in the weights but has bounced back to form, finding only one too good on his last 3 outings, latest at Wolverhampton just 6 days ago when ½-length behind Sevenkingsmustdie. Cheekpieces go back on and remains one to be interested in.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 03/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 1m5f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2025 · OR 68 par3/095OR 684 @ Warwick 23/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Fakenham 17/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 2m3y Gd 162 · HIGHER CLASS17/1044 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m2f23y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Yarmouth 02/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 67 · 1m3f104y GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 67 par2/075OR 675 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 62 · 1m GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 62 par14/085OR 626 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 62 · 1m6f21y Std 139 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Wolverhampton 29/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 134 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 64 par29/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-08-27Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-08-14Newmarket52nd1st+1
2026-07-31Newmarket56th5th+1
2026-07-02Yarmouth54th3rd+1
2026-04-11Yarmouth412th10th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0911/0414/0829/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20253rd15/261%67%+0.06
23/09/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
17/10/20255th13/266%20%-0.46
11/04/202612th50/10%8%+0.08
02/07/20264th15/261%0%-0.61
31/07/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
14/08/20262nd25/10%86%+0.86
27/08/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
29/09/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06