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9

Dodging The Bullet

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 54

Kempton · Bet 20 Pound Get 20 Pound With Unibet Handicap · 1m 3f 219y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed at Southwell when last seen on the Flat in March. Fourth of 14 in novice hurdle at Fontwell (2¼m, good, 66/1) back in May. May just need the outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 11/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m11y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS11/1044 @ Warwick 04/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 2m Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Newbury 17/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 2m69y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS17/1235 @ Lingfield 17/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m2f Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 67 par6 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m1y Std 133 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 63 par31/016OR 636 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m1y Std 131 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark02/03/2026 · OR 55 par2/036OR 556 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 54 · 1m3f24y Std 134 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 54 par4 @ Fontwell 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f162y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS6/054projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-06Fontwell44th2nd+2
2026-03-28Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-03-02Kempton64th4th0
2026-02-21Lingfield67th7th0
2026-01-31Lingfield67th7th0
2026-01-17Lingfield55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1017/012/036/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20258th50/10%22%+0.22
04/11/202514th50/10%0%0.00
17/12/202510th80/10%0%0.00
17/01/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
31/01/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
21/02/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
02/03/20264th6/168%63%-0.06
28/03/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
06/05/20264th66/10%77%+0.77