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9

Estado De La Luna

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 1m 30y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has shaped like a handicap project in a couple of 7f maiden starts, sent off at 66/1 when well-held seventh in Galway maiden latest. Tongue strap now added by top yard

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 11.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 7f Goo 12723/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sft 1278/09C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Galway?7th7th0
2026-08-23Naas?15th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +38.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/202615th25/10%7%+0.07
08/09/20267th66/10%45%+0.45