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4

Lake Lugano

2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 1

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden · 1m 30y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Starspangledbanner colt who's needed the experience in 7f maidens at the Curragh/Listowel. In top hands and may well make more impact with first-time blinkers added for this step up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 09/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 7f Goo 1339/08C8C8 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Yie 13322/09C8projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Listowel?5th5th0
2026-08-09Curragh?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +10.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
22/09/20265th22/10%20%+0.20