4
Karrygrant
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 11 · OR 77
Killarney · Gleneagle Killarney Median Auction Maiden · 1m 30y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Bellewstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA81 | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 90% | -0.06 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 93% | -0.02 |