3
Down The Glen
3yo Gelding · 9-13 · Draw 5 · OR 69
Killarney · Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap · 1m 30y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA69 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA68 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA69 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA71 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA71 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA64 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 05/09/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 19/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 04/06/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.33 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 54% | -0.09 |