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11

Spinola Bear

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 10 · OR 58

Killarney · Carry Out Off-Licence Handicap · 1m 30y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Down the field in maidens. Makes handicap debut stepped up to 1m, but shown little to recommend.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 13.0 /10 (raw 13.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 27/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR - · 6f GF 13427/06C8C8 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f Yie 13428/07C8C8 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR - · 6f Yie 13430/08C8projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Cork?15th15th0
2026-07-28Galway?7th7th0
2026-06-27Curragh?17th17th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0628/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/202617th66/10%16%+0.16
28/07/20267th150/10%54%+0.54
30/08/202615th100/10%7%+0.07