3
Big Bill
3yo Gelding · 10-2 · Draw 16 · OR 56
Killarney · Killarney Student Raceday Handicap (0-60) · 1m 30y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
7lbsClass Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Bellewstown | BHA56 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA56 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA61 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Cork | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Gowran Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 250/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 27/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/09/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |