18
My Mate Tony
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 17 · OR 53
Killarney · Killarney Student Raceday Handicap (0-60) · 1m 30y
#13
Rank
Odds
150/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 11.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA93 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA96 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-29 | Roscommon | BHA100 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Navan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/01/2024 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 22/06/2024 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 22/09/2024 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2024 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 01/03/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/04/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/09/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/07/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 14/07/2026 | 15th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |