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2

Nibras Rainbow

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · Draw 1 · OR 58

Killarney · Killarney Student Raceday Handicap (0-60) · 1m 30y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally since rejoining current yard in 22-runner handicap at Leopardstown (9f) in July. Good placed efforts on 3 of 4 starts since and should go well again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA48 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 48 par24/0448OR 48BHA46 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 46 · 1m31y Gd 128 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 46 parBHA50 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 50 · 1m1f Sft 132 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 50 par11/0650OR 50BHA50 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 50 · 1m1f GF 132 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 50 parBHA52 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 22 · OR 52 · 1m1f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 52 par9/0752OR 52BHA57 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 57 · 1m1f135y Goo 128 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Gowran Park 12/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 56 · 1m1f100y GF 138 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 56 par12/0856OR 56BHA56 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 56 · 1m2f Goo 119 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 56 parBHA58 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 58 · 1m2f10y Gd 142 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 58 par5/0958OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA583rd3rd0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA563rd3rd0
2026-08-12Gowran ParkBHA569th9th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA573rd3rd0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA521st1st0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA502nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0418/0612/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/202616th20/10%12%+0.12
12/05/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
11/06/20263rd11/142%88%+0.45
18/06/20262nd10/382%92%+0.10
09/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
20/07/20263rd10/382%82%-0.01
12/08/20269th11/271%43%-0.28
16/08/20263rd11/142%82%+0.40
05/09/20263rd9/153%90%+0.37