16
Oppenheimer
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 6 · OR 52
Killarney · Killarney Student Raceday Handicap (0-60) · 1m 30y
#15
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Listowel | BHA55 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cork | BHA59 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA60 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA64 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA65 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 4-16 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |
| 09/08/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 68% | +0.21 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 77% | -0.17 |
| 30/08/2026 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 27% | -0.47 |
| 22/09/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |