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11

Sayonara

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 47

Killarney · Killarney Student Raceday Handicap (0-60) · 1m 30y

#8

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In good form without winning until a below-par fourteenth of 22 in handicap at Cork (7f, soft) 26 days ago. Cheekpieces are reached for now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA49
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 5f Std 13228/01C8BHA60 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 60 · 6f Std 127 · below its mark13/02/2026 · OR 60 parBHA58 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 58 · 6f Goo 132 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 58 par12/0658OR 58BHA58 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 21st of 21 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 134 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 58 parBHA54 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 54 · 6f150y Gd 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 54 par11/0754OR 54BHA54 @ Killarney 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 54 · 1m30y Gd 134 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 parBHA51 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 51 · 7f Goo 133 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 51 par7/0851OR 51BHA51 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 51 · 1m Yie 133 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 51 parBHA49 @ Cork 09/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 22 · OR 49 · 7f Goo 127 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 49 par9/0949OR 49projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09CorkBHA4914th14th0
2026-08-30CorkBHA513rd3rd0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkBHA512nd2nd0
2026-07-14KillarneyBHA544th4th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA548th8th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA5821th21th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0124/067/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20265th20/10%67%+0.67
13/02/20263rd2/189%0%-0.89
12/06/202616th33/10%0%0.00
24/06/202621st125/10%0%0.00
11/07/20268th66/10%46%+0.46
14/07/20264th40/10%73%+0.73
07/08/20262nd20/10%92%+0.92
30/08/20263rd11/142%87%+0.45
09/09/202614th13/266%38%-0.28