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3yo Colt · 9-5 · Draw 2 · OR 88

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed) · 1m 3f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed plenty in Punchestown maidens a year apart, landing the odds in a tongue strap 3 weeks ago. This much harder but he remains with potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲7
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -7.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m30y Goo 13316/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f30y Goo 13415/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Punchestown?1st10th−7
2025-09-16Punchestown?2nd11th−7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0915/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -34.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd9/153%89%+0.36
15/09/20261st30/10098%100%+0.02