9
Believe Believe
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 8 · OR 62
Killarney · Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap · 1m 3f 50y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: BHA57
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA57 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Gowran Park | BHA57 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Galway | BHA58 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | BHA60 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 62/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/10/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.09 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 92% | -0.01 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |