10
Chestnut Palace
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 62
Killarney · Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap · 1m 3f 50y
#10
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: BHA63
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Punchestown | BHA63 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | BHA65 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA68 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 88/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +14.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 09/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 15/09/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |