1
Marjorie Daw
3yo Filly · 10-4 · Draw 1 · OR 74
Killarney · Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap · 1m 3f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA79 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA83 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | BHA85 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 01/06/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |