11
Shay's Dream
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 3 · OR 61
Killarney · Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap · 1m 3f 50y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.7)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA59 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | BHA60 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sligo | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ballinrobe | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 10/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/07/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/09/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |