5
Ballybawn Belter
8yo Mare · 9-4 · Draw 7
Killarney · Spin Southwest Maiden · 1m 3f 50y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼3
Strength87%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gowran Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA128 | −5 | ||
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 3rd | -5th | +7 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | -2th | +7 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 7th | -1th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 16/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 72% | +0.35 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |