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6

Blue Nasturtium

4yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 5 · OR 70

Killarney · Spin Southwest Maiden · 1m 3f 50y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort in maidens when fourth of 10 at Tramore (1½m, good) on debut. Not living up to her pedigree but she could well figure in this.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 1307/07C8C8 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 2m Gd 14913/08C8C8 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f168y Yie 13016/09C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Clonmel?3rd3rd0
2026-08-13Tramore?5th5th0
2026-07-07Tramore?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0713/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 67/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -26.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
13/08/20265th33/10%50%+0.50
16/09/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14