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4

Navy Guitar

7yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 9

Killarney · Spin Southwest Maiden · 1m 3f 50y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just modest form over hurdles/on chasing debut for Adrian Murray but ran to a seemingly fair level on Flat bow for new connections at Gowran (1¾m) last month (aided by having the run of the race). Similar form dropped back markedly in trip at Dundalk since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Wexford 17/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/03/2025 · OR 95 par17/03C8OR 95BHA93 @ Tipperary 14/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 93 · 2m190y Goo 161 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 93 parBHA92 @ Sligo 10/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 92 · 2m1f157y Goo 160 · beat its mark10/06/2025 · OR 92 par10/0692OR 92BHA102 @ Galway 28/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 102 · 2m130y Gd 158 · below its mark28/07/2025 · OR 102 parBHA100 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 2m2f200y Goo 160 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 100 par22/08100OR 100C0 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f165y Yie 166BHA100 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m Yie 168 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 100 par11/10100OR 100C8 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Yie 135C8 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 14018/09C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Dundalk?8th8th0
2026-09-01Gowran Park?5th5th0
2025-10-11FairyhouseBHA1009th11th−2
2025-09-19Downpatrick?5th5th0
2025-08-22KilbegganBHA1005th7th−2
2025-07-28GalwayBHA10214th17th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0328/0711/1018/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength95%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
14/05/20255th7/282%71%-0.10
10/06/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
28/07/202514th11/142%32%-0.11
22/08/20255th5/174%56%-0.18
19/09/20255th9/276%60%-0.16
11/10/20259th10/147%47%-0.01
01/09/20265th66/10%67%+0.67
18/09/20268th20/10%30%+0.30